"Sesungguhnya Allah dan para Malaikat berselawat ke atas Nabi S.A.W, wahai orang-orang yang beriman, ucapkanlah selawat dan salam penghormatan ke atas Nabi Muhammad S.A.W"-Allahumma Solli'ala Sayyidina Muhammad-

Thursday, December 23, 2010

How the Unit Trust (Amanah Saham) generate profit to you

The key to SUCCESS in unit trust investment is = Distribution+reinvestment+capital gain+right timing = Profit(SUCCESS)

As simple as call 'dividend' payment to the unit holder. Almost all of dividend in public mutual fund paid in annual basis and public mutual never fail to declare dividend to their unit holder so far.

All dividend paid to you is in units which can convert into RM. Since you have the choice to withdraw or to reinvest, this portfolio calculation we are going to show you is base on situation where you want to reinvest it on top of your current units own.

Capital Gain
Calculate on bought price vs sell price. Selling price at higher than bought price will make you earn capital gain. E.g: buy @ RM0.25sen & sell @RM0.29 sen so the capital gain is 4sen (0.29-0.25)

Right Timing
Current (2010) economic report shows Malaysia is in recovery stage after hit by global recession in 2008 & 2009. MIER reported it's maintain 2010 and 2011 economic growth of 6.5% and 5.2%(read more). Yes! this is the right timing. Investment is about medium to long term. We put minimum 3 years (medium) to calculate your portfolio.

Investment details
Invest RM 10,000 lump sum (cash) with service charge of 5.5% .
Net Amount investment = RM 9,478.70.
NAV buy @ RM0.25sen.
Total unit hold 9,478.70/0.25 = 37,914.80

1st Year
Distribution 1.75 sen. 37,914.80 x 1.75 sen = RM663.51
Reinvest at zero cost = 663.51/(0.25-0.0175)-dividend adjustment =2,853.81
New unit own after distribution : 37,914.80+2853.81=40,768.61

2nd Year
distribution 1.75 sen. 40,768.61 x 1.75 sen = RM713.45
Reinvest at zero cost = 713.45/(0.25-0.0175)-dividend adjustment =3,068.60
New unit own after distribution : 40,768.61+3,068.60=43,837.21

3rd Year
distribution 1.75 sen. 43,837.21 x 1.75 sen = RM767.15
Reinvest at zero cost = 767.15/(0.25-0.0175)-dividend adjustment =3,299.57
New unit own after distribution : 43,837.21 + 3,299.57=47,136.78

Sell after 3 years
Selling price @ RM 0.29sen.
47,136.78 unit X 0.29 sen = RM13,669.67
Total % ratio = (13,669.67-10,000)/10,000 = 36.69%

1) Rate of dividend = 7% (1.75/25). This is based on normal scenario. The better the market, maybe dividend rate will be higher.
2) By doing reinvestment, we could invest at lower NAV and at zero cost (not our pocket money)
3) Price movement is consider moderate in recovery/growth economic situation under equity market performance. The better the economic, the higher the price could be.

Invest in Unit Trust Public Mutual in medium to long term in this current recovery & growth economic situation will benefit you in total return of your investment portfolio.
Therefore, you should consider to maximize your return in the very minimum level of risk by diversified your investment in unit trust public mutual.

Should you have any inquires or comment, please do not hesitate to e-mail me at fadhilhussin.publicmutual@yahoo.com

Monday, December 20, 2010

Market Outlook for new week start 20-12-10

Weekly Technicals
FBM KLCI – Range bound between 1,474.02 and 1,531.99 till year-end.

FBM KLCI Weekly Chart

Support: 1,474 to 1,495
Resistance: 1,499 to 1,531

The FBM KLCI lost 7.40-points and closed at 1,499.28 last week, as some profit taking
activities on plantation and finance stocks trimmed the market’s initial advance. The global markets remained very quiet ahead of the Christmas and New Year holidays. The obvious support areas for the FBM KLCI are located in the 1,474 to 1,495-zone.

The key resistance areas of 1,499 and 1,531 may cap any rebound activity. Since the current rise of the KLCI was a “Flat”, investors should not get caught at the end of this rebound move. Bearish divergence signals are obvious on the FBM KLCI’s indicators.

As a result of the weekly Bearish Engulfing Candle top on 10 November 2010 at 1,531.99, we will see an uncertain corrective phase for the FBM KLCI for the next few weeks.

Conclusion :
We foresee an extended consolidation period for the index, which would be clearer on a break below the support of 1,474 or above the resistance of 1,531.

Want to Be a Unit Trust Consultant?

Great reasons to be a Unit Trust Consultant!

Great opportunity
The local unit trust industry is a multi-billion ringgit industry with huge opportunities in both the cash and EPF markets

Cash Market
For the cash market, the Bank Negara's Report for May 2010 shows individual's conventional and Islamic demand deposits and savings deposits stood at more than RM408.4 billion.

EPF Market
According to EPF 2008 Report, there were over 5.7 million of active EPF members as at end of year 2008.

Unlimited Income
You determine your own pay cheque. Capitalise on the huge untapped market potential, the sky is the limit for your earning potential! Besides, you will also be your own boss:
i) You have the freedom to build your own team and develop your own business strategies.
ii) You have the freedom to earn as much as you want, there is no limit.

Flexible working hours
You are not tied to a 9-to-5 job and have the privilege of dictating your own working hours to suit your needs. You can spend more time with your loved ones and do the things you have always wished to do by having flexible working hours.
Let Public Mutual help you achieve your goals

Industry leader
We are a leading player in the private unit trust industry in Malaysia, commanding 42.6%a of the market share. Being No.1b in the industry, we manage more than 70 funds with a total net asset value of RM36.5 billionc for over 2.3 million accountholders.

Most Awarded
Public Mutual is the most awarded unit trust fund manager in Malaysia, having received a total of 159 industry awards since 1999. More than 90 percent of the awards that we won are for superior fund performance.

Solid Brand
We are a wholly owned subsidiary of Public Bank, the country's third largest bank by assets. Besides enjoying the solid support of the bank, we also enjoy being associated with the strong PB Brand. We are the winner of the Reader’s Digest Trusted Brand Gold Award for four years running and the Platinum Award this year. We have also received The BrandLaureate Awards – Unit Trust category for four years in a row, which bears testimony to the trust and confidence of Malaysian investors in us.

Vast experience
Public Mutual has a wealth of 29 years experience in managing funds. Extensive distribution channel. We have the strongest and most productive agency force in the industry. Also, the largest with more than 70% market share in terms of tied-agents. (Source: Federation of Investment Managers Malaysian). Public Mutual is linked extensively through its national network of 26 branches and 2 agency offices to service our unit trust consultants and 2.3 million accountholders. These branches are augmented by 248 Public Bank branches, which also function as our ubiquitous collection centres.

Reward and benefits
We provide one of the most competitive incentives and benefit programmes in the industry:
- Attractive subsidies, bonuses, awards, public recognition and more.
- Go on luxury overseas trips, courtesy of our incentive scheme.

Personal development and professionalism
We invest heavily in your agency development training to help you build a business that can provide you financial freedom and a lifestyle of your choice.

State-of-the-art tools
Public Mutual has a comprehensive suite of sales and financial planning tools to assist unit trust consultants to service their fundholders better. In terms of total fund size managed amongst private unit trust companies in Malaysia.

Source: The Edge-Lipper, 19 July 2010
a & c Source: The Edge-Lipper, 19 July 2010

How To Be A Consultant
Please do e-mail me your name & phone number to fadhilhussin.publicmutual@yahoo.com and I do explain to you the best of being Unit Trust Consultant.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

John Murphy's Ten Laws of Technical Trading

I’ve come across an article by Chip Anderson in Chartwatchers (here), which addressed some of the questions that beginners may ask when they start out on their journey to learn about technical analysis. The topic is fairly wide & one may have to spend a few years to learn in-depth about this subject in order to be a professional, either a Certified Technical Analyst or a Chartered Market Technician. If you just want to have a good working knowledge of technical analysis, then all you need is a good book on technical analysis (such as John Murphy’s Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets) and a good charting program (such as Metastocks). I do not hold a professional qualification in technical analysis. My knowledge of the subject comes from continuous learning & daily observation of charts & the market. I use my technical knowledge- alone or complemented with fundamental analysis- in order to pick stocks that would give outstanding performance as well as determining the likely direction of the broader market. I have listed below John Murphy’s Ten Laws of Technical Analysis, which I hope would help you to decide whether you would like to learn more about this important topic. In my opinion, technical analysis would improve your investment performance significantly if it is learned properly & applied correctly.

1. Map the Trends
Study long-term charts. Begin a chart analysis with monthly and weekly charts spanning several years. A larger scale map of the market provides more visibility and a better long-term perspective on a market. Once the long-term has been established, then consult daily and intra-day charts. A short-term market view alone can often be deceptive. Even if you only trade the very short term, you will do better if you're trading in the same direction as the intermediate and longer term trends.

2. Spot the Trend and Go With It
Determine the trend and follow it. Market trends come in many sizes – long-term, intermediate-term and short-term. First, determine which one you're going to trade and use the appropriate chart. Make sure you trade in the direction of that trend. Buy dips if the trend is up. Sell rallies if the trend is down. If you're trading the intermediate trend, use daily and weekly charts. If you're day trading, use daily and intra-day charts. But in each case, let the longer range chart determine the trend, and then use the shorter term chart for timing.

3. Find the Low and High of It
Find support and resistance levels. The best place to buy a market is near support levels. That support is usually a previous reaction low. The best place to sell a market is near resistance levels. Resistance is usually a previous peak. After a resistance peak has been broken, it will usually provide support on subsequent pullbacks. In other words, the old "high" becomes the new low. In the same way, when a support level has been broken, it will usually produce selling on subsequent rallies – the old "low" can become the new "high."

4. Know How Far to Backtrack
Measure percentage retracements. Market corrections up or down usually retrace a significant portion of the previous trend. You can measure the corrections in an existing trend in simple percentages. A fifty percent retracement of a prior trend is most common. A minimum retracement is usually one-third of the prior trend. The maximum retracement is usually two-thirds. Fibonacci retracements of 38% and 62% are also worth watching. During a pullback in an uptrend, therefore, initial buy points are in the 33-38% retracement area.

5. Draw the Line
Draw trend lines. Trend lines are one of the simplest and most effective charting tools. All you need is a straight edge and two points on the chart. Up trend lines are drawn along two successive lows. Down trend lines are drawn along two successive peaks. Prices will often pull back to trend lines before resuming their trend. The breaking of trend lines usually signals a change in trend. A valid trend line should be touched at least three times. The longer a trend line has been in effect, and the more times it has been tested, the more important it becomes.

6. Follow that Average
Follow moving averages. Moving averages provide objective buy and sell signals. They tell you if existing trend is still in motion and help confirm a trend change. Moving averages do not tell you in advance, however, that a trend change is imminent. A combination chart of two moving averages is the most popular way of finding trading signals. Some popular futures combinations are 4- and 9-day moving averages, 9- and 18-day, 5- and 20-day. Signals are given when the shorter average line crosses the longer. Price crossings above and below a 40-day moving average also provide good trading signals. Since moving average chart lines are trend-following indicators, they work best in a trending market.

7. Learn the Turns
Track oscillators. Oscillators help identify overbought and oversold markets. While moving averages offer confirmation of a market trend change, oscillators often help warn us in advance that a market has rallied or fallen too far and will soon turn. Two of the most popular are the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastics. They both work on a scale of 0 to 100. With the RSI, readings over 70 are overbought while readings below 30 are oversold. The overbought and oversold values for Stochastics are 80 and 20. Most traders use 14-days or weeks for stochastics and either 9 or 14 days or weeks for RSI. Oscillator divergences often warn of market turns. These tools work best in a trading market range. Weekly signals can be used as filters on daily signals. Daily signals can be used as filters for intra-day charts.

8. Know the Warning Signs
Trade MACD. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator (developed by Gerald Appel) combines a moving average crossover system with the overbought/oversold elements of an oscillator. A buy signal occurs when the faster line crosses above the slower and both lines are below zero. A sell signal takes place when the faster line crosses below the slower from above the zero line. Weekly signals take precedence over daily signals. An MACD histogram plots the difference between the two lines and gives even earlier warnings of trend changes. It's called a "histogram" because vertical bars are used to show the difference between the two lines on the chart.

9. Trend or Not a Trend
Use ADX. The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) line helps determine whether a market is in a trending or a trading phase. It measures the degree of trend or direction in the market. A rising ADX line suggests the presence of a strong trend. A falling ADX line suggests the presence of a trading market and the absence of a trend. A rising ADX line favors moving averages; a falling ADX favors oscillators. By plotting the direction of the ADX line, the trader is able to determine which trading style and which set of indicators are most suitable for the current market environment.

10. Know the Confirming Signs
Include volume and open interest. Volume and open interest are important confirming indicators in futures markets. Volume precedes price. It's important to ensure that heavier volume is taking place in the direction of the prevailing trend. In an uptrend, heavier volume should be seen on up days. Rising open interest confirms that new money is supporting the prevailing trend. Declining open interest is often a warning that the trend is near completion. A solid price uptrend should be accompanied by rising volume and rising open interest.

Technical analysis is a skill that improves with experience and study. Always be a student and keep learning.
Thanks to John Murphy

Friday, December 10, 2010

Terkenang di masa lalu SMSS 1995

Rasanya semua orang dalam gambar ni dapat tawaran berlakon film. Cerita 'I know what you did last summer' versi melayu

Gambar di amik secara tak sengaja.. Oleh kerana Anuar tak pakai baju, maka pihak editor terpaksa memakaikannya dengan baju paint brush.. siap ada nombor 8 tu..

Haa.. ni masa form 4 1994.. di Sg. Merab, Bangi (update by Raniza air force Pilot).. kursus Biro Tata Negara (BTN).. 3-4 days.. ceramah, jungle tracking, kawad, sukan, qiamullail, group activity.. best gak... dari kiri duduk - Jeffry Albar, Roswadi, tak ingat, facilitator, aku, lupa, wan.

Berdiri dari kiri - Syed Noor Hisham, lupa, tak ingat, Zaril, Kamarul, lupa, tak ingat, Salbanie.
Gambar ni di ambil di Tasik Seri Permaisuri, Cheras. Yang duk kiri skali namanya Nawawi Ismail (Lecturer Politeknik Jeli), Zainuddin (status not found), Junaidi Rejab (status not found) Anuar Othman (Engineer Telco com @ Qatar)
Gambar ni di ambik masa tunggu keretapi tiba di stesen KL tahun 1995. Aku dah lupa yg duk belah kiri tu nama apa.. sapa tau please update me. 2nd from left is me (Fadhil), Shah Budin (status not found), last kanan Nawawi Ismail.
Yang ni gambar macam blurr sikit.. dah tua-tua ni tak berapa nampaklah sapa kat dalam gambar tu. Posing kat stesen KTM KL jugak.
Perhatian!!!. kepada penghuni dorm D101 (ada ke no bilik ni) Form 1 year 1995 (Hanif & de geng). Sila update status anda.. anak buah kesayangan blake la ni.. Masa ni jadi Ketua Dorm (haha aku ngan form 1 student takde beze)
Gambar ni best.. aku dapat duduk.. yang paling kanan duduk tu aku lah.. Cikguuuuu.. alamak dah lupa nama cikgu lah.. I'm sorry..
Orait.. gambar kat tasik ada lagi nih.. bergaya sakan.. jejaka kebanggaan ibu bapa.. dah jadi bapak blake dah kot la ni...
macam rock gambar nih.. yang pakai baju jeans tu senior aku tu.. nama dah lupa.. kanan skali Zainuddin, sebelah baju jeans tu Azmi, aku, Khairul Yashimie (sempat ngaji skali kat ITM mace year 1996) then yang kiri skali lupa dah nama dia. Perjalan balik ke Kota Bharu, Klate
Posing baik punya..
Gambar kenangan pasukan Nasyid tersohor era 90-an.. haaa Solo kanan skali sheikh Helmizan nir Rahman, Solo paling kiri sheikh Rizal. Nama kumpulan nasyid 'Bunga kembang tak layu'

Monday, December 6, 2010

New launching PIA40GF November 2010

Public Islamic Alpha-40 Growth Fund (PIA40GF) is the 13th Equity Islamic fund in Public Mutual which are recently launch by Public Mutual Berhad.

Fund Investment Strategy
1) To achieve capital growth/higher return over medium to long term by invest up to maximum 40 selected Shariah-compliant blue chip stocks, index stocks & growth stocks listed primarily on Bursa Securities and regional markets.
2) Investment access to an extensive selection of shariah-complaint stocks accross diversified industries & sectors.
3) Equity exposure range 75% to 98% of it NAV
4) Invest up to 30% of its NAV in selected foreign markets include Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, China, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines and other markets.

What is the offer price
RM0.25 for 1 unit.
Minimum initial investment RM1000 and minimum additional investment RM100

What is the Service Charge?
1) As low as 5% during offer period (16 November 2010 ~ 6 December 2010)
2) 5.25% for direct debit instruction during offer period for as long as direct debit is active.
3) 5.5% after offer period finish.

Is it approved for EPF investment scheme?
So far not valid for EPF investment withdrawal but any latest announcement will be update later.

Who should invest?
You are suitable to invest as long as you like to participate in the medium to long term growth potential af a concentrated portfolio of up to 40 stocks which comply with Shariah requirements.

Saturday, December 4, 2010

Market Analysis as at 3/12/2010

Equity Market analysis
The FBM KLCI had broken above the previous 1,524.69 all time 2008 high to create another new peak at 1,531.99 on 10 November 2010.
A big price reversal on the FBM KLCI occured in early November 2010 cause the technical indicators (DMI, Oscillator and MACD) turn into negative with potential correction phase emerged. It's proven with the correction low had been formed at 1474.02 on 29 November 2010.
Global market trends may become volatile recently but the market may shows turning a corner at the 1474 low as market focus is on the more positive USA economic figures reported last week rather than eurozone's debt woes.
With the global equity market tone improving in the beginning of December, FBM KLCI may move upwards towards the resistance level 1,531 due to its CCI and stochastic showing a 'buy signal'.
The firm support arreas are at 1,479 and 1,503 level which might lead to a mild profit taking.

Impact of Unit Trust Fund performance
Price direction of local equity fund mostly directly impact by FBM KLCI market movement. Therefore swithing into Money Market fund during market correction (2nd half of November) is to lock profit or cut loss have been made to all my clients.
Given that latest analysis of fundamental & technical is going to reverse the market into bullish trend, I have switch my clients from money market fund into equity fund again.

It's might be a best time again to invest in equity fund in Public Mutual unit trust to enjoy the bullish pattern before next correction. Recently, public mutual have launch 2 new funds and for details please click below address.

Cuti panjang

Assalamualaikum & salam sejahtera

November is a tough month for market and for me. 2 weeks not update blog and it's become too much holiday already.
Actually i'm still closely monitor public mutual fund performance & market movement but then 15th ~ 21st is a Raya Hajj holiday and I balik kampung at Kota Bharu (sembelih lembu). hehe
Then a week after, I found my self having vernal conjunctivitis (sakit mata) and again 1 week gone. best jugak cuti lama...

What happen to market in last 2 weeks?
2nd half November seen market consolidate into correction after record a new all time high for FBM KLCI @ 1531.99. Market analyst said this bearish divergence trend may end up with support level at 1490 or breaking of this level may further correction to 1447 points.

In addition, sounds of bad news coming at this time start with the Ireland debt crisis which end up with 85billion euro bail out to fund this crisis.

2nd story come out. orang nogori cakap takdo pasai carik pasai, dapat pasai habih tak pasai pasai. North korea vs South Korea nak perang plak dah.. all this heightened geopolitical risk was bring market into uncertainties.

Another panic story comeout after Ireland crisis. Now, investors are looking to the point that the crisis may spread out become european crisis include spain, portugal in remarks. Do they also need a bailout???

What's the impact to Malaysia equity market?

Simple manner to understand is fundemantel aspect and technical aspect :

Fundemantelly, it all about the currency exchange, international trade transaction, foreign company business in M'sia and futhermore our equity market is actually participate by 30% of foreign investor. News of war, company's making loss, financial sector glooming and so on will affect the market share price.

Technically, as simple as this phrase. "you will not stay in the boat alone inside the river after all people go even the boat is in a very good condition". It's means investors are always looking of profit by investing in market share. It's is not smart to stay inside while others sold right?

It's always an opportunities

It's a healthier situation to us. Market up will continue with downtrend after and of course it's will reverse pattern again and again and forever.

It's just a matter of when? and what price? So, smart investor will never lose.

Be a smart investor. Good Luck and Wassalam